This website presents preliminary outputs from a research project that is developing and improving forecasting methods for infectious disease epidemics. Please contact us if you have any questions, suggestions, or comments.
Our forecasting method is a refinement of that presented in the following publications:
- Accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviours and testing practices in real-time influenza forecasts (Trop Med Infect Dis, under review, preprint available).
- Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast (Commun Dis Intell, under review).
- Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration (Aust N Z J Public Health, Feb 2018).
- Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting (Infect Dis Mod, Feb 2017).
- Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems (Epidemiol Infect, Sep 2016).
- Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from Internet search query surveillance data (Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 10(4): 314–323, Jul 2016).
This forecasting tool is built on top of our generic particle filter package pypfilt and our infectious disease forecasting package epifx, both of which are written in Python and are available under permissive licenses.
Live forecasting schedule:
Forecasts will be generated on Thursday mornings (AEST, UTC+10) using influenza case notification counts for the week ending on the previous Sunday.
Available forecasts: (contact us for a username and password)
- 2018 Australian forecasts live
- 2017 Australian forecasts
- Melbourne, 2016
- Melbourne, 2010-2015
- Sydney, 2016
- Sydney, 2010-2015
- Brisbane, 2016
- Brisbane, 2011-2015
- Cairns, 2016
- Cairns, 2011-2015
- Gold Coast, 2016
- Gold Coast, 2011-2015
- Toowoomba, 2016
- Toowoomba, 2011-2015
- Hunter New England, 2014
- Other cities (coming soon)
These forecasts are pilot study outputs from a research collaboration between the Defence Science and Technology Group and the University of Melbourne, which is funded by the DST Group project "Bioterrorism Preparedness Strategic Research Initiative 17/491". They may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted or stored, electronically or mechanically, for any purpose, on any media, in any form or by any means whatsoever, without the explicit written authority of the copyright holders. The data presented in these forecasts do not necessarily reflect the true incidence of disease or the location where infection was acquired, and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts are provided "as is", and all responsibilities and liabilities for damages arising from use of these forecasts, or from any omissions from and errors in these forecasts, and for any express or implied warranties, are disclaimed. In no event shall the copyright holder or contributors be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, exemplary, or consequential damages.